Politics & Governance·Europe & Eurasia

Student-led movement ousts Vučić in Serbia

Serbia's Student List, which grew out of nearly two years of anti-corruption protests, won almost 53% of the vote in the 25 October snap parliamentary election. Aleksandar Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) took just over 39%, according to preliminary results. Vučić, who resigned the presidency in September to run for prime minister, conceded on election night. Our view is that this is a seismic result to deseat Vučić and his allies, who have had an autocratic grip on power for years. Their established networks of power through organised crime, football hooliganism and state security bodies will be hard to shift. The Student List has become more organised, but is still fundamentally a protest movement, it will take them some time to nominate leaders and work out how to govern. They will focus on anti-corruption and governance issues on which it is easy to agree. Those hoping for a big shift away from Russia towards the EU, or progress on recognition of Kosovo, will have to wait.

Source: Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (RIK), via Serbian media reports; preliminary, 26 October 2026

Politics & Governance·Americas

Lula wins a fourth term in Brazil

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil's 25 October runoff with almost 52% of the vote, overturning a first-round deficit against Flávio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro, a senator and son of the jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, says he will seek annulment. He cites a Supreme Court order that extended voting by two hours after some polling stations had closed, which both parties had asked for. The head of the electoral court has confirmed the result, and Bolsonaro's own Liberal Party has accepted it. Bolsonaro then left the country and may be traveling to the US, despite a Supreme Court travel ban linked to a corruption investigation. Our view is that we were right to say it was too close to call last week, with Lula's victory coming as quite a surprise. We can expect there to be continuing polarisation, especially if criminal cases against the Bolsonaro family are pursued and the Trump administration takes a hard stance against Lula. The right dominates Congress, and Bolsonaro has promised to make it a fortress against the government. Lula will have a hard time passing spending and tax measures through 2027.

Politics & Governance·Middle East & North Africa

Israel's election leaves both Netanyahu and Eisenkot short of a majority

Israelis voted on 27 October, with the highest turnout since 1999. Netanyahu's Likud is the largest party in the count so far, ahead of Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar!, but Netanyahu's bloc is still several seats short of the 61 needed for a majority. Eisenkot's bloc is further behind, and the Arab parties are heading for their strongest result in years. Soldiers' and other special ballots are still being counted, and official results are due on 4 November. Our view is that, on these numbers, no one can form a government. Netanyahu would need defectors from the opposition. Eisenkot can only reach 61 with Arab party support, which Naftali Bennett, a key ally, has ruled out. We expect Netanyahu to remain caretaker for months, which leaves him in charge if the US and Israel resume strikes on Iran. A repeat election in 2027 is now a possible outcome.

Bulgaria heads to a presidential runoff. Acting President Iliana Iotova, backed by Prime Minister Rumen Radev's party, took about 35% on 25 October against almost 32% for pro-Western Andrey Gyurov, on record-low turnout. The 1 November runoff is close, and an Iotova win would put an opponent of military aid to Ukraine in the presidency. Politics & Governance · Europe & Eurasia