Trump has lost Congress. The sweeping rejection of the approach to his second term included flipping several solid Republican states and will impact US politics for years. Voters have punished Republicans for Trump's impact on the cost of living, with tariffs and his war in Iran. What he does next is as unpredictable as always, but he seems to have at least accepted the result.

In Bulgaria, the final election of the recent flurry, acting President Iotova defeated the pro-Western competition. It strengthens Bulgaria's position in pushing within the EU against support for Ukraine. Russia has increased its attacks on the Ukrainian power grid a week before US-led talks in Abu Dhabi. There is a slim chance of an energy ceasefire.

Politics & Governance·Americas

Democrats win both houses of the US Congress

Democrats won control of the Senate and the House of Representatives in the 3 November midterm elections, according to projections by the Associated Press and NBC News. Counting continues in some races. Democrats took Republican Senate seats in Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Kansas. Trump said he was willing to accept the results. In exit polls, cost of living was the main concern, and about 60% of voters said attacking Iran was the wrong decision. The Democrats also won the majority of governor races being run, taking control in Georgia, Texas, Nevada, Ohio and Iowa. Our view is that this is a solid rejection of Trump's second term agenda, and represents a massive shift in US politics. Trump loses control of the legislative agenda from January and can expect House to block and investigate his policies business dealings. Foreign policy still sits with the President, but his tariffs could be under threat given some Republicans also want Congress to take back trade powers. With voters against the war and US forces still striking Iran, including Qeshm Island on the eve of the vote, Congress is likely to squeeze war funding if it continues into 2027.

Conflict & Instability·Europe & Eurasia

Russia hits Ukraine's grid a week before new talks in Abu Dhabi

Russia carried out its largest attack this year on Ukraine's energy system on 3 November, hitting substations, power lines and power plants. Kyiv had emergency power cuts and water outages. A day earlier, Russian bombs killed at least 29 people at an aid centre in Zaporizhzhia region, according to the regional governor. Ukraine hit an oil refinery in Yaroslavl, in Russia, on 3 November. US envoy Steve Witkoff has called the two sides to Abu Dhabi on 10-11 November. Zelensky wants an energy ceasefire, open Black Sea grain routes and more prisoner exchanges. Our view is still that major progress is unlikely, with Russia agreeing to talks just to keep the US on side. It seems to be working, as it emerged this week that Witkoff and Kushner had proposed Russia sell gas to Europe through an American intermediary. European officials reject it, of course. A ceasefire for power plants and refineries is unlikley to be agreed in Abu Dhabi but may still come before winter.

Defence & Security·Asia-Pacific

US blames North Korea for record $6bn Binance theft

Hackers took more than $6 billion from Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, around 29 October. Most of it moved within about 20 minutes. Binance traced the breach to a compromised laptop belonging to one of its engineers. The FBI blamed North Korea's 'TraderTraitor' operation, which it also blamed for the $1.5 billion Bybit theft in 2025. North Korea denies it. Binance says it will cover all customer losses. Our view is that this record theft is a large windfall for Pyongyang. A 2026 US intelligence assessment put North Korea's yearly earnings from such crime at $1 billion or more, so this is a major step up. US sanctions may follow on the brokers and exchanges that help launder the funds.

Also this week

Iotova wins Bulgaria's presidency. Acting President Iliana Iotova, backed by Prime Minister Rumen Radev, won the 1 November runoff with almost 58% against pro-Western Andrey Gyurov, according to early counts. With Radev's ally in the presidency, the office no longer checks his government, and Sofia is likely to argue harder in the EU for talks with Moscow and against military aid to Ukraine. Politics & Governance · Europe & Eurasia

Poland's fight over its top court turns physical. President Karol Nawrocki pushed his way into the Constitutional Tribunal on 31 October after judges chosen by parliament suspended its chief justice, while riot police held back protesters outside. Politics & Governance · Europe & Eurasia

UN mission in Western Sahara lapses after US policy change and Russian veto. Russia vetoed a US draft on 30 October that would have renewed the mission and made Morocco's autonomy plan the only basis for talks. Morocco wants UN staff out within days, which removes the main ceasefire monitor in a conflict with low-level fighting since 2020. Conflict & Instability · Middle East & North Africa

US drops South Africa and Rwanda from African trade scheme. The US Trade Representative said on 2 November that both countries will lose duty-free access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act from 1 January. South Africa is the scheme's largest user, so its exporters face US tariffs in under two months unless Washington changes course. Trade & Supply Chains · Sub-Saharan Africa

Senegal's parliament blocks budget needed for IMF deal. Lawmakers loyal to Assembly speaker Ousmane Sonko, sacked as prime minister by President Faye, rejected the revised 2026 budget on 3 November. That puts a $2.2 billion IMF programme at risk, with public debt above 130% of GDP and a board vote possible in December. Politics & Governance · Sub-Saharan Africa

Uganda starts pulling its troops out of Somalia. Uganda, which has the largest contingent in the African Union force, said on 2 November that its withdrawal has begun and will be complete by the end of 2027. With UN logistics support for the mission due to end on 31 December and Washington opposing renewal of its mandate, Somalia's government will struggle to hold ground against al-Shabaab. Defence & Security · Sub-Saharan Africa

Ebola deaths in DR Congo pass 5,000. Africa CDC counts more than 10,400 infections across the DRC, Uganda and Kenya since the DRC declared the outbreak in mid-May, the largest of its 17 Ebola outbreaks. Kenya recorded its first cases, and two deaths, in October. Conflict & Instability · Sub-Saharan Africa